Intro
Based on recent statements and actions by Donald Trump, the "handwriting is on the wall" for Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Ukraine's war with Russia.
It's clear that Trump is going to strong-arm Zelenskyy into a "deal" that Trump thinks is fair, even though any "deal" will in all likelihood be skewed in Russia's favor. If Zelenskyy refuses the "deal," Trump will most likely threaten to withhold future military aid to Ukraine.
Recent Events
On February 3, speaking from the White House Trump said:
We're looking to do a deal with Ukraine, where they're going to secure what we're giving them with their rare earths and other things.
I want to have security of rare earths. We're putting in hundreds of billions of dollars. They have great rare earths. And I want security of the rare earths, and they're willing to do it.
Source:
Bivings, Liliane. (February 9, 2025). "Ukraine Business Roundup — Trump wants Ukraine's 'rare earths'". The Kyiv Independent. Retrieved 2025-02-22
On February 12 U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv and gave him a draft of a Ukraine/United States minerals agreement. Zelenskyy said he would have his team review the agreement and work toward fast approval. A few days later Zelensky said he wasn't ready to sign the agreement because it was too focused on U.S. interests and it did not offer any specific security guarantees in return.
The same day Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the phone. Although Trump placed a call to Zelenskyy later that same day, the next day, February 13, Zelenskyy said it was "not pleasant" that Trump chose to call Putin first. That same day Zelenskyy also said:
As an independent country we simply cannot accept any agreements without us. And I articulate this very clearly to our partners. We will not accept any bilateral negotiations on Ukraine without us.
In addition, Zelenskyy said that talks with Russia should take place only after "a plan to stop Putin has been worked out."
On February 18 top officials from the U.S. and Russia, including U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, met in Saudi Arabia to discuss a path forward to end the war. No Ukrainian officials were present at the meeting.
On February 19, 2025 at Mar-a-Lago Trump said (bold added for emphasis):
But today I heard, oh, well, we weren't invited. Well, you've been there for three years. You should have ended it three years. You should have never started it. You could have made a deal. I could have made a deal for Ukraine that would have given them almost all of the land, everything, almost all of the land and no people would have been killed and no city would have been demolished and not one dome would have been knocked down, but they chose not to do it that way.
Source:
(February 18, 2025). "Remarks: Donald Trump Signs Executive Orders at Mar-a-Lago - February 18, 2025". Roll Call. Retrieved 2025-02-21
When Trump said "we weren't invited" he was referring to the fact that no Ukrainian officials were present at the February 18 meeting between the U.S. and Russia in Saudi Arabia.
The same day Trump posted the following on social media (bold added for emphasis):
Think of it, a modestly successful comedian, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion Dollars, to go into a War that couldn't be won, that never had to start, but a War that he, without the U.S. and 'TRUMP,' will never be able to settle.
He refuses to have Elections, is very low in Ukrainian Polls, and the only thing he was good at was playing Biden 'like a fiddle.'
A Dictator without Elections, Zelenskyy better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left.
In the meantime, we are successfully negotiating an end to the War with Russia, something all admit only 'TRUMP,' and the Trump Administration, can do. Biden never tried, Europe has failed to bring Peace, and Zelenskyy probably wants to keep the 'gravy train' going. I love Ukraine, but Zelenskyy has done a terrible job, his Country is shattered, and MILLIONS have unnecessarily died – And so it continues…
Source:
Samuels, Brett. (February 19, 2025). "Trump: Zelensky 'has done a terrible job'". The Hill. Retrieved 2025-02-22
The same day Zelenskyy said Trump was living in a Russian-made "disinformation space."
On February 21, in an interview with Brian Kilmeade of Fox News Trump refused to answer when Kilmeade pressed Trump several times to agree that what's happened in Ukraine is Russia's fault. Instead of answering the question, Trump rambled on and on saying:
He [Zelenskyy] has no cards, and you get sick of it. You just get sick of it. And I've had it.
So I don't think he's [Zelenskyy] very important to be at meetings to be honest with you. He's been there for three years. He's — he makes it very hard to make deals.
Source:
Schorr, Isaac. (February 21, 2025). "'That's Vladimir Putin's Fault, Don't You Agree?' Fox News' Brian Kilmeade Repeatedly Challenges Trump During Anti-Ukraine Rant". Mediaite. Retrieved 2025-02-22
In stark contrast to Trump's rant, on February 21 Keith Kellogg, Trump's special envoy to Ukraine and Russia posted the following on social media:
A long and intense day with the senior leadership of Ukraine. Extensive and positive discussions with @ZelenskyyUa, the embattled and courageous leader of a nation at war and his talented national security team.
Analysis
Trump is using his "tried and true" playbook of vilifying his opponents and portraying them as "bad guys."
Why is Zelenskyy Trump's "bad guy?" As noted previously, on February 21 Trump said "he makes it very hard to make deals." Zelenskyy is standing firm and Trump knows that he is going to have to strong-arm him into submission to get a "deal."
Trump admires Putin. Trump believes that negotiating with him will be much easier than negotiating with Zelenskyy, partly because Trump is going to show deference to Putin.
Trump is spreading disinformation to make Zelenskyy out as the villain. He's doing it so that when Trump announces a "deal" (that Zelenskyy will, in all likelihood, think is unfair) Trump can justify the "deal" by saying that since Zelenskyy "started the war," because he is a "dictator," and so on, Trump's "deal" is what you get, take it or leave it.
As I said in the Intro, if Zelenskyy does not agree to a "deal" that Trump thinks is fair, Trump will most likely withhold military support to Ukraine. That would put the onus of further support on the rest of the NATO members currently providing support. And, knowing Trump, there would be other "prices to pay" for not signing a "deal."
Trump is "hell bent" on a "deal" regardless of whether it's truly fair or not. Remember, Trump previously said he would end the Ukraine/Russia war in one day. Not only is his MAGA agenda on the line, his massive ego is as well.
The major points of contention in any "deal" will be:
- How to divide up the Ukrainian land that Russia now occupies?
- Ukraine's future as far as NATO is concerned
- Who will get control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant?
- What, if any, reparations will be awarded to Ukraine to rebuild buildings and infrastructure damaged and destroyed by Russian bombing?
- What, if any, reparations will be awarded to Ukraine for all of the innocent civilians killed and injured by Russian bombing?
It's unclear how the territory Putin's military has gained in eastern Ukraine would be fairly divided. Putin is going to strongly object to any "deal" that cedes territory back to Ukraine. He is also going to strongly object to any "deal" that returns control and operation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to Ukraine.
It's clear that Putin won't agree to any "deal" that includes the possibility of future NATO membership for Ukraine. Zelenskyy said he won't sign the rare earth minerals agreement without additional security stipulations (implying the possibility of future membership in NATO). Perhaps a solution is a security agreement outside of NATO between the U.S. and Ukraine. That might make Zelenskyy more open to a "deal" that does not include the possibility of future membership in NATO.
I doubt that Putin will agree to reparations as part of any "deal." Maybe, in an effort to seal a "deal," the U.S. will agree to pay for reparations, which would let Putin "off the hook" for all of the damage done by Russian bombing.
Without a truly fair "deal" Putin will be emboldened. In March of 2014 Russia annexed Crimea. How long will it be before Putin gets another "wild hair" and decides to invade somewhere else?
So far, one saving grace in all of this is Keith Kellogg (Trump's special envoy to Ukraine and Russia), who at present seems to be reasonable, rational, and neutral, and who might be able to help solidify a truly fair "deal" despite the ranting and raving of Trump.
By ending the war we eliminate the certainty of not only more deaths and destruction in Ukraine, but the possibility of World War III. The $64,000 question is how do we fairly end it?