The 2020 U.S. presidential election will surely be one of the most important and consequential elections in American history, but my concern, based on what we know as of today, is that it very well might be one of the most highly contested elections in American history as well.
If you've been paying attention, you know that over the past couple of months Trump has been talking a lot about mail-in voting fraud, claiming that the expected increase in mail-in voting because of the coronavirus pandemic will "rig" the election against him. What follows is a short list of some of what he's been saying.
June 22, 2020 tweet:
RIGGED 2020 ELECTION: MILLIONS OF MAIL-IN BALLOTS WILL BE PRINTED BY FOREIGN COUNTRIES, AND OTHERS. IT WILL BE THE SCANDAL OF OUR TIMES!
Source:
Parks, Miles. (June 22, 2020). "FACT CHECK: Trump Spreads Unfounded Claims About Voting By Mail". NPR. Retrieved 2020-08-02.
July 30, 2020 tweet:
With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history. It will be a great embarrassment to the USA. Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???
Source:
Ewing, Philip. (July 30, 2020). "Trump Floats Delaying The Election. It Would Require A Change In Law". NPR. Retrieved 2020-07-30.
August 17, 2020, speaking to a small group of supporters in Oshkosh, Wisconsin:
Make sure [you vote] because the only way we're going to lose this election is if the election is rigged. Remember that. It's the only way we're going to lose this election, so we have to be very careful...The only way they're going to win is that way. And we can't let that happen.
Source:
Chalfant, Morgan. (August 17, 2020). "Trump: 'The only way we're going to lose this election is if the election is rigged'". The Hill. Retrieved 2020-08-19.
August 24, 2020, speaking at the Republican National Convention in Charlottesville, North Carolina:
Think of it, they'll be sending them [mail-in ballots], they'll be dumping them in neighborhoods. People are going to be picking them up. They'll be bribing. They'll be paying off people to grab some. This is going to be one of the greatest scams...But what it means is they're trying to steal the election from the Republicans, that's what it means...But this is big stuff. This is stealing millions of votes.
Think of it, they'll be sending them [mail-in ballots], they'll be dumping them in neighborhoods. People are going to be picking them up. They'll be bribing. They'll be paying off people to grab some. This is going to be one of the greatest scams...But what it means is they're trying to steal the election from the Republicans, that's what it means.
But this is big stuff. This is stealing millions of votes. And it's going to be very hard. Now we're in courts all over the country. And hopefully, we have judges that are going to give it a fair call because if they give it a fair call, we're going to win this election. The only way they can take this election away from us is if this is a rigged election. We're going to win this election.
I'm just saying we cannot have these live, we call them live, some people call them universal, I like the word live, these live mail-in ballots sent to everybody, including mostly people that never asked for them.
What they're doing is using COVID to steal an election. They're using COVID to defraud the American people, all of our people, of a fair and free election. And we can't do that.
Source:
(August 24, 2020). "Donald Trump 2020 RNC Speech Transcript August 24". Rev. Retrieved 2020-08-24.
On July 19, 2020, in an interview with Fox News host Chris Wallace, Wallace asked Trump if he was "gracious" and if he would accept the results of the 2020 presidential election. Here's part of the exchange:
WALLACE:
In general, not talking about November, are you a good loser?
TRUMP:
I'm not a good loser. I don't like to lose. I don't lose too often. I don't like to lose.
WALLACE:
But are you gracious?
TRUMP:
You don't know until you see. It depends. I think mail-in voting is going to rig the election. I really do.
WALLACE:
Are you suggesting that you might not accept the results of the election?
TRUMP:
No. I have to see. Look, Hillary Clinton asked me the same thing.
WALLACE:
No, I asked you the same thing at the debate.
Wallace then played a video clip from the October 19, 2016 presidential debate.
WALLACE:
There is a tradition in this country -- in fact, one of the prides of this country -- is the peaceful transition of power and that no matter how hard-fought a campaign is, that at the end of the campaign that the loser concedes to the winner. Not saying that you're necessarily going to be the loser or the winner, but that the loser concedes to the winner and that the country comes together in part for the good of the country. Are you saying you're not prepared now to commit to that principle?
TRUMP:
What I'm saying is that I will tell you at the time. I'll keep you in suspense. OK?
TRUMP:
And you know what? She's the one that never accepted it.
WALLACE:
I agree.
TRUMP:
She never accepted her loss and she looks like a fool.
WALLACE:
But can you give a, can you give a direct answer you will accept the election?
TRUMP:
I have to see. Look, you – I have to see. No, I'm not going to just say yes. I'm not going to say no, and I didn't last time either.
Source:
(July 19, 2020). "Transcript: 'Fox News Sunday' interview with President Trump". Fox News. Retrieved 2020-08-31.
There are two important points here. One, Trump firmly believes that the election will in fact be "rigged" against him (something he also claimed in 2016). And two, Trump is not necessarily going to accept the results of the election.
Now, let me add a third element to this. If you read the full transcript of Trump's RNC speech (see August 24, 2020 Source link above), you'll see that in addition to railing about about mail-in ballots, he also spends an inordinate amount of time touting and "talking up" all of his supposed accomplishments as president.
Trump's touting is more than just typical campaign talk trying to convince listeners to vote for him. It's a subversive way of convincing everyone, himself included, that with SO MANY accomplishments, the only way he could lose the election is if it was "rigged." What Trump is subliminally saying is that he's SO GOOD, he's accomplished SO MUCH, and the country needs him SO BAD, that the only reasonable, possible explanation for losing would be some kind of fraud.
I use the word "subversive" because what Trump is doing is actually undermining and eroding faith and confidence in our election process. And he's doing it to ensure victory for himself.
I use the word "subliminally" because what Trump is doing, unbeknownst to the listener, is "brain-washing" everyone to believe what he believes - that when it comes to being president, he's BY FAR THE BEST EVER in the history of America. And if and when he contests the election results, because they've been "brain-washed", most people will believe his mail-in voting fraud conspiracy theory and they will support him in his conclusion.
What Trump has been doing for the past couple of months is laying the groundwork, "priming" the electorate, and "seeding the clouds" - preparing everyone for what he might do if the election doesn't go his way. If and when it appears he is losing the election as votes are counted (in particular when mail-in votes are counted), he can then say something like, "See? What did I tell you? Rigged!" But, because of who Trump is it wouldn't stop there - that would just be the beginning.
What could Trump possibly do then, you ask?
Consider the following scenario.
It's November 3, election night, and as election results are tabulated and then reported by the media, it appears that Trump is winning the key battleground states - not by a lot, but enough to make it appear he will win the election.
Trump will surely be watching, like a hawk, and when he sees he's ahead in those battleground states he will begin to feel that victory is almost certain. The numbers will tell him that he is "winning" - something his enormous ego depends on for survival.
It's possible that some media networks might even call the election for Trump, saying he's won. If that happened, that would only be more "proof" to Trump that he won the election and that he's the "stable genius" he claims to be.
But then, by next morning, or perhaps over the next couple of days, as the huge volume of mail-in votes are counted, Trump's lead begins to shrink in those battleground states. And as the lead shrinks, Trump is watching, intently. He believes that this just can't be, and he immediately concludes, "Ah-ha! Just like I said. The election was rigged!"
At this point Trump begins a massive "tweet storm", claiming mail-in voting fraud and anything else he can think of to undermine the election results.
A few more days go by and now Trump is losing in most battleground states - just enough to ensure he will in fact lose the election.
Surely, this would be the "final straw" and set Trump off like a fireworks display on the 4th of July. His ego would not be able to accept this outcome, and he would take immediate action.
He would probably demand a recount.
He might declare a "national emergency" to give him temporary powers and authority beyond what a president normally has.
He might send "official government inspectors" from the DHS to polling places where mail-in votes are counted to do some sort of audit and inspection. There would certainly be a huge controversy about how fair any "official government inspectors" sent by the Trump administration would be.
He might make some kind of ridiculous proclamation declaring the election "null and void."
For sure, Trump would do everything that he, his lawyers, his cabinet members, and his attorney general could think of to somehow conclude that he won reelection.
However it all goes down, the election could end up being decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.
And how would Americans respond to this?
I think you'd see massive demonstrations in cites all across the country - mostly by people that voted against Trump, of course - but there would be Trump-supporting counter protesters as well. And it's possible that some of those protests could turn violent. And then guess what Trump would do? Yeah, you guessed it - he would send military troops to all of the "offending" cites because he's the "law and order" president.
Does this sound far-fetched? I don't think so, because we all know that with Trump, ANYTHING is possible. We know that he is not going to leave the Oval Office without kicking and screaming, throwing a tantrum, and doing every last possible thing he can think of to remain as president for a second term.
How can we minimize the possibility of this happening? If you vote by mail, I suggest you VOTE EARLY. VOTE AS SOON AS YOU RECEIVE YOUR BALLOT AND MAIL IT NEXT DAY.
I sincerely hope the election doesn't go down in the way I just described. But as Americans, I think we should prepare ourselves for the very real and likely possibility that determining the winner of the upcoming election is going to be Trump's most egregious "circus act", the likes of which we've never seen before.
The upcoming election is truly a "brewing storm" and I think it's going to test our democracy "to the max."
More:
- Georgia's top election official says 1,000 people voted twice in primary, may face charges | The Hill
- Democrats sound alarm on possible election chaos | The Hill
- Americans should not expect the election results on election night | The Hill
- Top general: Military will play no role in resolving any electoral dispute | The Hill
September 4, 2020 Update:
In an interview with Politico, Bernie Sanders said that Trump might not concede the election, citing the same concerns I've noted in this article.
This is not just idle speculation. Trump was saying that the only way he could lose the election is if there was — let me get the exact quote — 'the only way they can take this election away from us is if this is a rigged election.' Now he is making that statement at a time when virtually every national poll has him behind.
What we have got to do in the next two months is to alert the American people about what that nightmarish scenario might look like in order to prepare them for that possibility and talk about what we do if that happens.
The nightmare scenario there is that, at a time when some states like Pennsylvania are finding that they don't have the resources right now to count votes, their mail-in ballots, in a rapid way, that it is possible that in some states Trump will be winning on election night, and yet when all of the votes are counted, he will be behind. He will lose. But that during that interval, he will create chaos and confusion by claiming that there is massive fraud within the mail-in ballot process.
Sanders also mentioned Trump's July 19 interview with Chris Wallace of Fox News where Trump wouldn't say for sure that he would accept the results of the election.
Source:
Otterbein, Holly. (September 4, 2020). "Sanders: America must be prepared for when Trump refuses to leave office". Politico. Retrieved 2020-09-06.