Government and Politics

2020 U.S. Presidential Election | Pre-Election Information and Final Results

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Pre-election Overview

Sign | Vote Here AquiElection day for the 2020 presidential election is November 3.

In the race for president, President Donald Trump (running mate Vice President Mike Pence) is running against former Vice President Joe Biden (running mate California Senator Kamala Harris).

Two other presidential candidates will appear on the ballot: Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins (running mate Angela Nicole Walker), and Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen (running mate Spike Cohen).

In the Senate there are 33 of 100 seats up for regular election. There are also two special elections taking place: one in Arizona and another in Georgia.

Twelve Senate seats held by Democrats and 23 seats held by Republicans are up for election. In the Senate 16 seats are considered battleground races.

Currently, Democrats hold 47 seats in the Senate and Republicans hold 53. Democrats need a net gain of four seats, or three in addition to winning the presidential election, to gain a majority in the Senate.

In the House all 435 seats are up for reelection.

In the House 41 seats are considered battleground races. Of those 41 seats, 20 have Democratic incumbents, 20 have Republican incumbents, and one has a Libertarian incumbent.

Currently, Democrats hold 232 seats in the House and Republicans hold 197. In addition, there is one Libertarian member and five vacancies. Republicans need a net gain of 21 seats to gain a majority in the House.

Source:

"United States Senate elections, 2020". Ballotpedia. Retrieved 2020-10-13.

"United States House of Representatives elections, 2020". Ballotpedia. Retrieved 2020-10-13.

Eleven states are holding gubernatorial (governor) elections. Read more on the FiveThiryEight website here.

Because of the coronavirus pandemic, it's expected that many more people will be voting by mail this election when compared to past elections.

Research shows that Democrats are much more likely to vote by mail than Republicans. Because of that, it's likely that the final results of the election will not be known on the night of November 3 because it will take several days, and maybe longer, to process all of the expected mail-in ballots.

Different states have different rules about when mail-in ballots can be processed (opened, signatures verified, and secrecy sleeves removed) and when they can actually be counted/tabulated. An article on the NPR website entitled "When Will Mail-In Ballots Be Counted? See States' Processing Timelines" shows two charts detailing all of this information by state.

According to the charts, the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin do not allow ballots to be processed until election day. The battleground state of Michigan allows ballots to be processed the day before the election.

According to the charts, the battleground states of Georgia, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin do not allow ballots to be counted/tabulated until election day.

Some have been predicting a "red mirage" on election night where it appears that Republicans are winning most of the races, including the race for president, but then as mail-in ballots are tallied in the week after the election, Democrats end up winning a significant number of those races.

One more thing to be aware of is that based on President Trump's rhetoric about mail-in ballots and election fraud over the past few months, there is a reasonably good chance that he will contest the election results, especially if the "red mirage" scenario occurs.

Note that recent U.S. Supreme Court rulings in the battleground states of North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin affect the last day mail-in ballots will be accepted and counted. In North Carolina a 9-day extension is in effect, effectively moving the "accept-and-count" date to November 12 (assuming postmarked by November 3). In Pennsylvania a 3-day extension is in effect, effectively moving the "accept-and-count" date to November 6 (assuming postmarked by November 3). In Wisconsin, no extension was allowed, meaning ballots must be received by November 3.

However, one thing to keep in mind about these three rulings is that the legal decisions and rulings made about the cases prior to their arrival at the U.S. Supreme Court are not the same. In the case of the Wisconsin ruling, a lower federal court was involved. In the North Carolina and Pennsylvania cases, state court rulings were involved. This fact might be significant if the election results are contested.

Information Resources

The Real Clear Politics website has a wealth of information regarding election polls, including results from individual polls and the average of all major polls (referred to as the "RCP Average").

Ballotpedia is a non-profit, nonpartisan "digital encyclopedia of American politics and elections" website which is another very good source of information.

View a 2020 Electoral College Map of the U.S. showing the current polling forecast for each state (likely, lean, toss up) on the RealClearPolitics website here.

View a graph showing the RCP Average of Trump vs. Biden here.

View info and maps of all Senate races on the Real Clear Politics website here.

View info and maps of all Senate races on the Ballotpedia website here.

View info and maps of all House races on the Real Clear Politics website here.

View info and maps of all House races on the Ballotpedia website here.

View a forecast of the presidential race on the FiveThirtyEight website here.

Read analysis of the presidential race on the Cook Political Report website here.

View polling charts of all the races on the Trafalgar Group website here.

The Brookings Institution has a web page that grades each state based on how well it has prepared itself for mail-in voting.

BallotPedia has a web page with a wealth of information about mail-in voting including absentee/mail-in voting requirements and deadlines in all 50 states, and much more.

BallotPedia also has a web page with detailed historical data (2008, 2012, and 2016) about "pivot" or "swing" counties which you can view here.

NBC News has a web page entitled "Plan Your Vote" which shows information about deadlines, mail-in voting, and early voting, all by state.

Pre-election News and Opinions

View an image gallery showing all of the 2020 presidential election campaign ads I received in the USPS mail here.

Presidential Election Polls and Results

View the results of the presidential election (state electoral votes) here.

The table below shows the RCP Averages for all the battleground states in the six weeks leading up to election day, as well as the actual winning margin on election day (ACTUAL column).


State RCP Avg 9/28 RCP Avg 10/05 RCP Avg 10/12 RCP Avg 10/19 RCP Avg 10/26 RCP Avg 11/02 Actual
National Avg Biden +6.1 Biden +9.0 Biden +9.2 Biden +8.6 Biden +7.8 Biden +6.7
Arizona Biden +2.8 Biden +3.4 Biden +3.2 Biden +3.1 Biden +2.4 Biden +0.9
Florida Biden +1.1 Biden +3.5 Biden +3.7 Biden +1.6 Biden +1.8 Biden +1.8
Georgia Biden +0.3 Biden +0.3 Trump +0.4 Biden +1.2 Trump +0.4 Trump +0.2
Iowa Biden +0.5 Biden +1.4 Biden +1.2 Biden +1.7 Biden +0.8 Trump +1.4
Michigan Biden +5.2 Biden +6.2 Biden +7.0 Biden +7.2 Biden +9.0 Biden +5.1
Minnesota Biden +9.4 Biden +9.4 Biden +9.0 Biden +6.3 Biden +6.0 Biden +4.3
Nevada Biden +1.0 Biden +6.0 Biden +5.2 Biden +5.2 Biden +5.2 Biden +3.6
New Hampshire Biden +8.4 Biden +8.4 Biden +11.0 Biden +11.0 Biden +12.0 Biden +8.0
North Carolina Biden +0.5 Biden +1.4 Biden +3.2 Biden +2.3 Biden +1.2 Trump +0.2
Ohio Biden +3.3 Biden +0.6 Biden +0.6 Trump +0.2 Trump +0.6 Trump +1.4
Pennsylvania Biden +5.7 Biden +6.5 Biden +7.0 Biden +3.5 Biden +4.8 Biden +1.6
Texas Trump +3.2 Trump +3.2 Trump +4.4 Trump +4.4 Trump +3.2 Trump +1.2
Wisconsin Biden +5.5 Biden +5.6 Biden +6.3 Biden +6.3 Biden +5.5 Biden +6.7

On October 26, 2020, Sean Trende (senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics) said the following about early voting data:

I have given my response on this matter before: Don't try to divine election results from early voting returns. I made this point in 2016, when people were making the exact same arguments about Democrats' chances off of similar data. The problem today is the same as it was back then.

For example, we can look at North Carolina, and see that Democrats have a 10.5-percentage-point lead over Republicans in early voting. That seems great for Democrats. But we could also contextualize this by noting that at a similar point in 2016, Democrats had a 13.1-percentage-point lead there in early voting. In other words, Democrats are doing worse than they were at this point four years ago (and much worse than they were in 2012). Actually, with a week to go early voting is looking about the same as it did at the end of 2016 (when Democrats had a 9.8-percentage-point lead at the end), and that wasn't a great year for them.

On October 26, 2020, Analysis posted on FiveThirtyEight says the following about the presidential race:

We're in the last full week before Election Day, and as we've been saying for a while now, President Trump is running out of time to mount a comeback and close the gap Biden has opened in both national and state polls. We’re way past the point where a normal polling error alone could hand Trump the win. Still, Trump has a meaningful chance, per our forecast — a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die and a little better than the chances that it's raining in downtown Los Angeles. And remember, it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)

On October 20, 2020, speaking with Sean Hannity of Fox News, Robert Cahaly (chief pollster for the Trafalgar Group) said the following about the presidential race:

What we've noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote. There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they're not interested in sharing their opinions readily. These people are more hesitant to participate in polls. So if you're not compensating for this, you're not going to get honest answers.

Senate Election Polls and Results

Watch the October 6, 2020 debate between Arizona Senator Martha McSally and Mark Kelley here.

The table below shows the RCP Averages of all the battleground seats in the Senate as of November 2, 2020, as well as the actual winning margin on election day (ACTUAL column).

View the election results of all Senate races here.

Overall, Democrats had a net gain of x seats in the Senate.

STATE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLICAN RCP AVG ACTUAL
Alabama Doug Jones Tommy Tuberville Tuberville +11.0 ???
Arizona Mark Kelly Martha McSally Kelly +5.7 ???
Colorado John Hickenlooper Corey Gardner Hickenlooper +8.0 ???
Georgia John Ossoff David Perdue Ossoff +0.7 ???
Georgia 2 Raphael Warnock and Matt Lieberman Kelly Loeffler and Doug Collins Warnock +15.4 ???
Iowa Theresa Greenfield Joni Ernst Ernt +2.0 ???
Maine Sara Gideon Susan Collins Gideon +6.0 ???
Michigan Gary Peters John James Peters +5.4 ???
Minnesota Tina Smith Jason Lewis Smith +5.0 ???
Montana Steve Bullock Steve Daines Bullock +2.0 ???
North Carolina Cal Cunningham Thom Tillis Cunningham +2.6 ???
South Carolina Jaime Harrison Lindsey Graham Graham +3.0 ???
Texas M.J. Hegar John Cornyn Cornyn +6.8 ???
Note: the color of the STATE column indicates the incumbent party

Democrat Jon Ossoff defeated Republican David Perdue in the Senate runoff election on January 5, 2021. Ossoff received 2,238,939 votes (50.4%) and Purdue received 2,203,324 votes (49.6%).

Democrat Raphael Warnock defeated Republican Kelly Loeffler in the Senate runoff election on January 5, 2021. Warnock received 2,257,858 votes (50.8%) and Loeffler received 2,184,454 votes (49.2%).

Source:

(January 6, 2021). "Georgia Senate Run-Offs - January 5th". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved 2021-01-06.

According to the Real Clear Politics website, on 01/03/21 the "RCP Average" has Democrat Jon Ossoff ahead of incumbent Republican David Perdue by 1.0%.

According to the Real Clear Politics website, on 01/03/21 the "RCP Average" has Democrat Raphael Warnock ahead of incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler by 1.3%.

Source:

(January 4, 2021). "Georgia Senate Special Election Run-Off - Perdue vs. Ossoff". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved 2021-01-04.

(January 4, 2021). "Georgia Senate Special Election Run-Off - Loeffler vs. Warnock". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved 2021-01-04.

According to the Real Clear Politics website, on 12/27/20 the "RCP Average" has Democrat Jon Ossoff ahead of incumbent Republican David Perdue by 0.8%.

According to the Real Clear Politics website, on 12/27/20 the "RCP Average" has Democrat Raphael Warnock ahead of incumbent Republican Kelly Loeffler by 1.8%.

Source:

(December 31, 2020). "Georgia Senate Special Election Run-Off - Perdue vs. Ossoff". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved 2020-12-31.

(December 31, 2020). "Georgia Senate Special Election Run-Off - Loeffler vs. Warnock". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved 2020-12-31.

View information about the January 5, 2021 U.S. Senate runoff election in Georgia via the following links:

Ossoff defeats Perdue in Georgia Senate runoff | The Hill

Warnock defeats Loeffler in Georgia Senate runoff | The Hill

Loeffler sidesteps questions on challenging Electoral College vote in Senate | The Hill

Can Georgians Be Foolish Enough to Vote for a Hate-Filled Lying Phony Like Warnock? | The American Spectator

Ossoff shuts down Loeffler criticism of Warnock: She's 'been campaigning with a Klansman' | The Hill

Fox host tries to embarrass Democrat Jon Ossoff on air... it backfired HORRIBLY | YouTube

Trump Georgia rally could backfire, electing Ossoff and Warnock | The Hill

2.3 million people have voted in Georgia's Senate runoffs with week to go | The Hill

Judge orders halt to voter purge in two Georgia counties ahead of Senate runoffs | The Hill

GOP Georgia senators throw support behind $2,000 stimulus checks | The Hill

Judge throws out GOP lawsuit to close Georgia ballot drop boxes after business hours | The Hill

Trump returning to Georgia in last-minute push for Republican Senate candidates | The Hill

Georgia pastors blast Loeffler campaign criticisms of Warnock as 'attack against the Black Church' | The Hill

Loeffler repeatedly dodges questions about winner of White House race | The Hill

Judge dismisses GOP lawsuit against Georgia absentee voting rules | The Hill

Requests for mail-in ballots top 1 million in Georgia as early voting begins in Senate runoffs | The Hill

RNC files Georgia lawsuit demanding access for GOP poll watchers in Jan. 5 Senate runoffs | Fox News

Ossoff debates empty podium as Perdue refuses to participate | The Hill

Trump election claims dominate Georgia Senate debate | The Hill

Lawsuit alleges 200K Georgia voters were wrongly purged from registration list | The Hill

Sidney Powell, Lin Wood Oppose Trump, Push Georgians Not to Vote in Senate Runoff | Breitbart

Democrats Double Down on Dirty Georgia Tricks Designed to Split Trump Supporters from GOP Senate Candidates | Breitbart

Georgia Secretary of State Raffensperger investigating 250 cases connected to election | Fox News

Five things to know about Georgia's Senate runoffs | The Hill

Ossoff warns McConnell would cause paralysis in federal government if GOP holds Senate | The Hill

Warnock hit by Republicans over 'cannot serve God and the military' comment | The Hill

Republicans seek to batter Warnock ahead of Georgia runoff | The Hill

Graham to counter 'tsunami of liberal money' by donating $1M to help Georgia Senate candidates | Fox News

Tillis wins North Carolina Senate race | The Hill

Abrams raises $6M for Georgia Democrats in Senate runoffs | The Hill

House of Representatives Election Results

View the election results of all House races here.

Overall, Democrats had a net gain of xx seats in the House giving them a xxx to xxx majority.

State Governor/Gubernatorial Election Results

View the election results of all state governor/gubernatorial races here.

State Ballot Measures Election Results

View the election results of all ballot measures here.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/524469-utah-nebraska-voters-approve-measure-stripping-slavery-language-in

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/527217-members-of-law-enforcement-sue-to-halt-marijuana-legalization-in-south

State Measure Title Passed Result
Arizona Amendment 2 State Abortion Policy Amendment Yes 59.0%

Post-election Analysis and Commentary

Seth Meyers, who hosts a late-night NBC talk show called "Late Night with Seth Meyers" aired a segment on November 4, 2020 entitled "As Biden Nears Victory, Trump Tries to Steal the Election: A Closer Look".

Here's just a little of what he said (watch the video to get the full context):

Trump and Fox News have been priming their audience with these lies [mail-in voting fraud] for weeks. And now, the moment is here and they're taking the outrageous and unprecedented step of falsely declaring victory before all the votes are counted, insisting that any votes that come in for their opponent are somehow fraudulent. It's an authoritarian movement intent on detonating our democracy and turning it into an autocracy, with a healthy sprinkling of psychosis.

Counting votes and not "finding" votes. They're not scanning the beach with a metal detector. This isn't a scavenger hunt...Again, they are all valid ballots that are just getting counted the way we always count ballots days or weeks after an election.

In fact, Republicans are the ones responsible for the delays in ballot counting they are now complaining about. We could have started counting all these early mail ballots in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania before election day, but Republicans refused.

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